Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Daily Stock Picks: RYAAY, SXE, APOL, NVTL, HURN [What's that Sucking Sound?]

There was an attempt to break out of the triangle pattern to the downside today, however the volume was so light that the breakdown could not be confirmed. That could all change tomorrow with the news after hours of yet another bank (Back of America, argued for a long time to be one of the stronger banks) needs even more money to maintain its capital structure. The markets should open up lower tomorrow, but rally in an attempt to get back into the triangle formation. However, we could see the sell off accelerate to the downside on rising volume which would confirm the breakdown and signal a retest of old lows and a possible fall of the Dow to 5000, yes 5000. Also, the reason why JP Morgan and Citi are reporting early isn't because they are going to report great numbers, it is because they want to dictate how their books are marked and not have another company dictate their marks.

RankPrevious RankSymbolMLT+SwingDays in Top 5
#1(#1 --)RYAAY1.112
#2(#2 --)SXE1.002
#3(#3 --)APOL0.862
#5(#5 --)NVTL0.762
#6(N/R)HURN0.721

Note: #4 CYCL, it is a cash buyout and not included.

The Apple news about Steve Jobs' health is rather unsurprising, but it is an example of trust, and why nobody should trust anything that any company says. Until people can do so this market is for traders only and will continue to scare away investors. That sucking sound you're hearing from the economy, from the banks, from everywhere around you is the great pull of deflation gaining strength. The clearest place to see the deflation picture is with gasoline. Today you can buy twice as much gas for the same price as you could a year ago, and yet people are using less gas and still cutting back on driving. That is deflation and one doesn't have to look any further than Japan to see the effect it can have on an economy for decades!

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