Thursday, January 22, 2009

Daily Stock Picks: RYAAY, NVTL, SXE, IOC, APOL [Linked?]

Something very, very interesting showed up in the markets today and it had nothing to do with the markets ability to rally from the lows set on Tuesday. The treasury market and the stock marked begin to show signs of trading together. Normally when stocks go up, treasury bonds will be down, and vice versa. Today however the stock market was down, and treasury's were down as you can see from this chart of the TLT vs the S&P500 below.



While one day does not make a new trend, it is something to watch out for. If the stock market and treasury market continue to move in relative lockstep with each other it points to the treasury market being linked to the economic recovery, and the general faith that the US economy will recovery. It is important to remember that most of US debt is financed by Japan and China and if they begin to believe that the economic recovery is going to fail they will be a seller of treasuries and the stock market. This is very much something to watch and worry about moving forward.

RankPrevious RankSymbolMLT+SwingDays in Top 5
#1(#16 +15)RYAAY0.911
#2(#1 -1)NVTL0.917
#3(#2 -1)SXE0.837
#4(#4 --)IOC0.752
#5(#3 -2)APOL0.727


Also, don't look now but LIBOR is really back on the rise. Two weeks ago LIBOR overnight was sitting around 0.12%, today it is up to 0.21%. Not nearly as bad as it was back when the credit crisis first showed its ugly head, but it is on the rise again. Just another thing to watch out and worry for.

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